Is Turkish Airlines straining the Star Alliance?

Turkish Airlines today finalized new direct service to Washington, D.C., and Los Angeles, continuing the torrid growth that could soon make it Europe’s third-largest airline by passenger count.

If THY overtakes British Airways for the third-place slot, Europe’s balance of power among airline alliances would see a major shift. Air France-KLM would still represent SkyTeam at No. 2, but Star Alliance would dominate, with Turkish at No. 3 and Lufthansa at No. 1.

You might think that prospect would have Star executives rubbing their hands in anticipation. But according to The Wall Street Journal, a better description might be: wringing their hands in consternation.

“Turkish seems to be the new Emirates – no one wants to be in an alliance with Emirates because there is no room for a partner, the aim is to connect everything via Dubai,” an unnamed source tells the paper.

A spokesman for Star disputed that idea, telling the Journal that Oneworld and SkyTeam should be the ones worried about THY — not partners within the Star Alliance.

But CEO Temel Kotil makes no secret of his desire for growth, and he cites Lufthansa among his prime competitors. “We rank 25th in the world with 5,440 flights weekly and 8th when the number of destinations is evaluated,” he said last week at a meeting in Bodrum, Turkey. “Now we aim at competing with companies such as Lufthansa and Air France. My personal aim is to raise the number of flights to 10,000 and make THY a world leader.”

THY is pursuing its growth strategy on multiple fronts: It has $3 billion of new planes on order, it is rolling out an economy-plus cabin, and it has signed an endorsement deal with England’s wildly popular Manchester United soccer team. If a better product and better marketing aren’t enough to boost its market share, THY is also exploring acquisitions. The company is reported to be in advanced talks with both JAT Airways of Serbia and with Polish national carrier LOT, a fellow member of Star.

Another possible takeover target: Croatia Airlines, yet another Star Alliance member that was rumored to be in talks with Lufthansa several months ago.

So is one alliance big enough to hold two major carriers from a single geographic region? Officials in Frankfurt may want to think twice before denying that any sibling rivalry could exist within the Star family. That merely plays into the hands of regulators who see alliances as anti-consumer and anti-competitive.

Instead, a Lufthansa-Turkish rivalry should be welcomed as a sign that alliances are working: More passengers have more choices, big airlines can operate at a profit, and competition forces everyone to constantly improve.

That’s something to celebrate, not sweep under the rug.